On January 13, I wrote the following about Newt Gingrich’s obsession with taking down Mitt Romney:
Gingrich might be on his last breath, but with hate’s sake, he’ll spit his last breath at Romney. Mitt Romney, my friends, is rapidly becoming Newt Gingrich’s white whale. . . . He [will] pile upon the Romney’s white hump the sum of all the rage and hate felt by his whole race from Adam down. If his chest were a cannon, he would shoot his heart upon it. (I hope that was as fun to read as it was to write. Any time you can squeeze in “pile upon the Romney’s white hump” in a sentence, you just have to do it. Just call me Ishmael.)
Nearly every phrase was taken from Herman Melville’s “Moby Dick,” the classic American tale of a ship captain obsessed with catching the sperm whale that had ferociously amputated his leg. The analogy, here, is clear.
In early December, Gingrich sailed smooth on top of national, Iowa, South Carolina, and Floridapolls. Then, toward the end of December, pro-Romney SuperPACs dismantled the Gingrich candidacy. The attacks decimated the former Speaker, and he plummeted in the polls. Like Ahab lost his leg to the whale, Gingrich lost his lead to the Romney.
Since then, of course, Gingrich has seemed to be on a single-minded focus in the 2012 Republican Primary. Sure, he wants to win; but if his ship is going down, he wants Romney to go down with him. Ahab’s rage thrust him across the seas; the crazed Captain was willing to sacrifice himself to gain his revenge. Similarly, an irate Gingrich was on a nearly suicidal mission in South Carolinain a nearly single-minded quest to hurt Romney.
Ultimately (spoiler alert), Captain Ahab found his whale, but it cost him his life and ship. Is Gingrich, however, re-writing the end for his own quest? Last night, Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina Primary. Such a turn of events brings to mind one of my favorite lines in bad American cinema:
“He’s cut! The Russian’s cut! And it’s a BAD cut!
—American blow-by-blow announcer in Rocky IV
Rocky Balboa cutting Ivan Drago in the second round of Rocky IV’s climactic fight was a game changer: the invincible giant, cut by the scrappy underdog. Goliath proved vulnerable. (I strongly recommend watching that clip with a mental replacement of the two fighters with the two candidates.)
Similarly, Mitt Romney was also considered invincible. He outraised and outspent all other Republican candidates. He had essentially campaigned for six years in Iowa and had a house in New Hampshire. In the debates, he had all the tools of a calm frontrunner. He killed Rick Perry. Meanwhile, everyone was rather certain that Newt Gingrich’s long career was behind him. Mitt Romney, it became increasingly clear, was the future of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich was the past; he’d looked outmatched while taking a beating in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney was winning, just as he was supposed to. The script unfolded as we expected it would.
But then, last night in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich, backed into a corner by Romney’s enormous spending ability and unrelenting Pro-Romney SuperPACs, landed a right hook. His primary win was the moment Mitt Romney finally looked vulnerable. And now every pundit and insider is looking around and regaining his bearings. We can’t believe what we’re saying as we’re saying it: Mitt Romney is cut, and he could lose.
And, in fact, there’s a case to be made that he WILL lose. There’s a case to be made—incredibly, and against most odds—that Newt Gingrich is the favorite to be the Republican nominee. I’m not saying he is; I’m just saying there’s a case to be made. In the coming days, I’m going to see if I can make it and believe it at the same time. You can find that analysis at my Presidential Politics for America blog.
Moving forward, what most interests me is not what Rick Santorum will do or how Florida Latinos and seniors will vote—though all are intriguing—but how Gingrich will be portrayed by the Republicans who don’t want him as their nominee. More specifically, we’ve all been looking to see which Republican would emerge as the “anti-Romney.” Now that it looks to be Gingrich, I’m eager to see if there’s an equally large interest in nominating an “anti-Gingrich.” Remember, as the party scrambled to find someone with a consistent conservative background to replace Romney, the heavy favorite, such a storyline was irrelevant. But with a new co-favorite, will we hear a formerly quiet faction of Republicans who fear a Gingrich candidacy just as much as so many feared a Romney nomination, only they’ve had little reason to make themselves known because Gingrich hasn’t been a factor in voting until now?
The Florida Primary is not until January 31. We have nine days to see if this faction makes itself known. Romney will scramble to find his bearings in the next nine days. Between his head-start in advertising, Florida’s left of Carolina tendencies, Gingrich’s long history in politics, and Romney’s massive campaign war chest, I do expect for him to slow the bleeding from above his left eye. But at the very least, it’s a whole new campaign.
Until then, the bell just rang for the next round. Whether it’s Rocky vs. Drago, Ahab vs. Moby Dick, or Cheney vs. Mixed Metaphors, we’re in for a treat. Sit back and enjoy the fight.
